Unorthodox lessons about the war

The Gulf war II is not something the allies should be proud of. The loudest message to all of the autonomous countries is: if you do not possess weapons of mass destructions swiftly purchase or develop some! And this message has been understood well in North Korea.

With the ex-soviet space in Asia open to virtually any kind of trade such deals could be arranged very easily. Evidence for this is the presence of Russian weapons in the Iraqi army, which lead to some tense words between the American, and the Russian governments.

A difficult question to resolve is how to get back the plain simple guns, which were given to the population for self-defense by the Baaf party. With the current raging storm of anarchy in the conquered, or as we follow the orthodox terminology – “liberated” cities, this does not seem feasible task. The order in these cities could not be kept by the army or the marines – they are simply not trained to do so, and especially deal with mobs.

Another question is where did the armies of Saddam go – and the answer is plain: in the cities. Probably they have been separated into small guerilla groups for performing “terrorist” attacks against the allied personnel and the new “liberal” officials appointed by the occupation government. Some parallels in this regard could be made with the Balkan history during the WWII.

If we look at the mid-term time frame the allies cannot afford free elections in Iraq – one of the loudly proclaimed objectives of the war, since this inevitably will lead to rise of the fundamentalist movements. The only move they can afford is to extend the transition period of occupation with 1-2 years with the involvement of UN, which with France and Russia, being hostile to the whole affair, does not seem likely. With Syria and Iran being next target of the American policy in the region the stabilization and reconstruction of Iraq will be extremely difficult. Iran will kindle the separationist movements in Basra, and Syria currently shelters Iraqi army units and political leaders.

And here we come to the most difficult question: What will be the fate of the Kurdish people in Iraq. Looking from the historical perspective of the Ottoman imperial history, the most likely answer is – they will proclaim autonomy or even independence – possibility well understood and loathed in Turkey. Much blood has been shed about this yet still much is to come before this fate is fulfilled, as Mandos would say.

Iraq is an artificial state consisting of 3 peoples – Iraqis, Shiites and Kurds, created by the British with the same reasons as the Versailles system borders in Europe after the WWI and the outcome will be likely the same.